AUD Pairs Weekly Analysis 27012014

Update : My bearish bias on AUD pairs made on 27th Jan 2014 are no longer valid now.

AUD is becoming bullish across all pairs post Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to keep interest rates on hold at 2.5 %. 
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AUD , CAD are one of the weakest currencies at the moment. This is quite evident from Below image.

Important support levels were broken,retested and rejected on some AUD pairs last week. Below are my thoughts and trade setup ideas.



AUD/CHF : CHF is currently one of the strongest currency and AUD one of the weakest. The pair has broken important support at 0.82300 and then at 0.78500. I missed my sell limit order entry at 0.82300 level by few pips 2 weeks back and was expecting price to return to this level but it didnt.
Weekly Stochastics are bearish.

I will be placing a sell limit order at 0.78100 for a target of 0.74100.


EUR/AUD: This pair has broken resistance at 1.50500 and 1.56200. I expect price to retest 1.56200 next week and continue its bull run.

GBP/AUD : This pair has broken weekly resistence at 1.87 and likely to resume its uptrend after retesting it.

AUD/CAD Trade Set up 20012014

This pair is turning bullish after creating higher high and higher low on weekly.

Today price is breaking out of long term consolidation pattern on H1.

Charts speaks for themselves loud and clear. So here are weekly and H1 timeframe charts.

EUR/USD Daily Chart Update 15012014

As expected this pair has resumed its bearish trend after retrace and rejection of 1.36700 level. This level is rejected by bearish Fakey which today is followed by Daily Bearish Breakout Bar.

Although Daily chart close is few hrs away price has clearly broken 1.36200 level which it is likely to retest.

Target

Bearish FIB 61.8 level is rejected and the target will be 161.8 FIB level i.e. around 1.33200.

EUR/NZD Daily Trade Set up_ 07th January 2014

This pair has broken the support at 1.6700 or rather showed false break above this level before reversing uptrend. I see 2 possibilities here.

Pair will retrace up to retest 1.67 before resuming downtrend. OR
Pair will break support at 1.64 to move towards 1.61. This is fast moving pair so 2nd possibility is more likely to happen.

I have placed sell limit at 1.66300 and sell stop at 1.63400.

EUR/NZD Daily 07012014

AUD/CAD Monthly Analysis Dec 2013

This pair is in downtrend on monthly after breaking long term support at 0.99400 in June 2013.

In Oct and Nov 2013 it retested the same level and rejected it which is 50% Monthly Bear FIB level.

In Dec 2013 it broke support at 0.95948 resuming its downtrend which is likely to be tested in Jan 2014.

In my opinion 0.95900 is the place to enter sell limit orders as price is expected to retest and reject this level.

Target: If we go by monthly chart

Target 1 is 100 Bear FIB Level 0.91750 and
Target 2 is 161.8 Bear FIB level 0.82100.

AUD/CAD Monthly Chart Dec 2013

EUR/USD Weekly Analysis 6th January 2014

Eur is looking weak across all pairs. Although this pair has not broken last Low of 1.33700 yet. I'm bearish on this pair for below reasons.

Pair couldn't break past monthly resistance level @ 1.38.
Double top is created on weekly chart at 1.38 level.
Bearish breakout bar of last week clearly indicates change in direction. You can see same bearish breakout bar on EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/CAD.

Although I'm long on this pair from 1.36100 level. I will be looking to close my longs at 1.36700 and enter short at same level for a target of 1.33800.

CAD/JPY

CAD/JPY: This pair is looking more bullish after rejection of 161.8 of Monthly Bull FIB.
The pair is likely to reach its 2nd Target of 261.8 Bull FIB at 105.

This pair has completed Break, retest and Rejection sequence of below levels which adds Confluence to its bullish Bias.

92.700
97.600

Monthly Stochastics are bullish.

Daily has created Bullish Pin Bar rejecting 21 EMA. However the pair will touch 97.400 level to hunt stops before resuming its uptrend.

I will be placing 2 pending Buy Limit orders at 30% and 70% retracement of Friday's Bullish Pin Bar.

Targets for this pair are as follows
100
105
110

Update : 7th January 2014. Price went against my initial expectation. I had placed buystop at 98.900 which didnt trigger and saved me from Drawdown trade. Price is likely to touch 94.700 level now.

EUR/NZD :
Bias: Bullish

EUR/AUD:

EUR/GBP : This pair looks extremely bearish at the beginning of 2014 and set for long term downtrend.

Pair is making Lower Highs and Lower Lows on Monthly
Price has rejected 50% and 61.8% of Bear FIB levels.
Shorts can be entered once price breaks and retests Support at 0.82300.

First day of year 2014 and my first post on currency analysis. My analysis would purely be based on technicals.

Eur/Usd : This pair is hovering around big resistance and Bearish FIB level of 38.2 which is at 1.38400.
 If price closes above this level on monthly chart, Pair would continue its bullish run.

As pair is still bullish on weekly and Daily charts buying on pullbacks at below levels is advisable.

1.36
1.34900
1.33700

Shorts trades can be considered only after Break and rejection of support at 1.35600 on weekly and monthly chart.